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Actress Marion Cotillard strolls through the lobby of the Smith Rafael Film Center on Jan. 29 before a showing of her film "La Vie En Rose." She is up for an Oscar.
Picking Oscar winners is as hard as betting on who’ll win the Super Bowl. Maybe harder. At least with the Super Bowl you can get points.
“It’s as hard as trying to decide between Hillary and Obama,” says Zoe Elton, director of programming for the California Film Institute, the people behind the Mill Valley Film Festival and the Christopher B. Smith Rafael Film Center.
“The hardest are the acting awards,” she says. “There are always these incredible actors who pull rabbit-out-of-the-hat performances. How can you possibly choose?”
Because I’m pretty sure that no one sees more films than Zoe does, or is more astute on the subject, I can’t think of anyone I’d rather put on the spot to do just that.
So, one recent morning, she and I chatted about who we predict will prevail in the six major categories - best picture, best actress, best actor, best supporting actress, best supporting actor and best director - when the 80th Academy Awards airs Sunday night on ABC, beginning at 5 p.m.
Many of us will be watching in our living rooms with our friends and families. For the 14th year, film buffs who prefer a grander experience will also come together at the Rafael Film Center for Oscar Night America, a benefit for the California
Film Institute’s education program for school kids.
Zoe and I agreed that because of the film institute, Marin is the place to be for people who love movies. Over the past year, we’ve seen and heard a number of actors and directors and technical people who are now up for awards, and how many suburban counties in the country can say that?
“Between what we do at the festival and what we show at the Rafael, it’s a pretty rich palette,” Zoe says.
For example, Todd Haynes, who directed the Golden Globe winner “I’m Not There,” inspired by the many faces of Bob Dylan, was here in October for the film festival, speaking insightfully about Cate Blanchett’s phenomenal impression of Dylan in his early electric period.
Blanchett is up for best supporting actress, as is Amy Ryan, who was also in Marin for the festival, accompanied by Ben Affleck, for a screening of “Gone Baby Gone,” which Affleck directed.
It was nice having Amy and Ben here, but, for Zoe, it came down to Blanchett or Tilda Swinton for her role as a killer corporate lawyer in “Michael Clayton.”
“I was gobstrucked by Cate Blanchett in ‘I’m Not There,’” Zoe said. “But then Tilda Swinton has that indelible last scene in ‘Michael Clayton.’ I’m getting chills just thinking about that. Those few moments for me were one of the most transcendent moments for an actress on film that I’ve ever seen.”
When all was said and done, Zoe went with Swinton while I cast my vote for Blanchett, not because I think she’s the best, but because I think she’ll win.
The French star Marion Cotillard, a best actress nominee, was at the Rafael Film Center a few weeks ago for a reprise screening of the Edith Piaf biopic “La Vie en Rose.”
And Laura Linney, also up for best actress, was here on opening night of the film festival for a screening of “The Savages.”
A double nominee, Blanchett is also in the running for best actress for “Elizabeth: The Golden Age.” But neither Zoe nor I think that movie is strong enough for her to win this time.
“I think she’ll have other chances,” Zoe predicted.
We toyed with selecting the darling Ellen Page, the newcomer getting all the buzz for “Juno.” And, any other year, sentimental favorite Julie Christie would get my vote.
At the end of the day, though, we agreed that Cotillard will take the best actress Oscar back to France with her. We may have been swayed by her lovely presence here, and by the fact that she has family in San Rafael, but, that being said, she really deserves to win.
“Atonement” director Joe Wright was in Marin recently with James McAvoy, who co-stars with Keira Knightley in movie adaptation of the Ian McEwan novel, a best picture nominee that had a preview screening at the Rafael.
Again, I don’t think it’s because Wright charmed us with his hip Britishness, but we picked “Atonement” to grab best picture honors.
For some reason, Wright didn’t get a nomination for best director. Without him in the mix, Zoe’s going with Joel and Ethan Coen for “No Country for Old Men,” a movie I’ve been hesitant to see because of all the violence. But she convinced me to put that aside, and I plan to see it before the awards show.
“The great thing with that film, although there’s violence, I really trust the people whose hands I’m in,” she told me. “Cormack McCarthy (author of the novel it’s based on) and the Coen brothers is a marriage made in heaven. There is violence, but what’s driving it is a fascinating journey.”
That may be, but I’m picking Julian Schnabel for “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,” a longshot that is also nominated for best cinematography.
Zoe likes Javier Bardem to limp away with the Oscar for best supporting actor for “No Country for Old Men,” but I’m rooting for Hal Holbrook for “Into the Wild,” which was also previewed at the Rafael, followed by a Q&A with director Sean Penn and star Emile Hirsch. This may be Holbrook’s last nomination, and I can’t picture the Academy not giving the award to him.
And, finally, let’s look inside the envelope for the hard-to-choose best actor. Zoe thinks Daniel Day-Lewis will get it for “There Will be Blood,” and so do I, although I disliked that movie immensely while admiring his performance in it.
Whoever wins Academy Awards on Sunday night, the movie-going public was the real winner this Oscar season.
“Across the board, there were some powerful films,” Zoe said. “I want everyone to win.”
OSCAR GALAS IN MARIN
AT THE SMITH RAFAEL FILM CENTER
What: “And the winner is É the California Film Institute’s Oscar Night America,” the only official Bay Area Academy Awards event sanctioned by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Proceeds benefit California Film Institute Outreach
Who: The emcee is Marin comic/actor Geoff Bolt
Where: Smith Rafael Film Center, 1118 Fourth St., San Rafael
Details: Evening includes a silent auction, a raffle and the “Predict the Winners” contest. Dinner and wine bar are available in the adjacent cafe.
Tickets: Bronze patron tickets $100 for general seating, $150 for reserved seating for groups of 10 or more (with print and on-screen acknowledgement)
3:30 p.m. - Sneak preview of selected Oscar-nominated shorts
4 p.m. - Gala starts with cocktails and hors d’oeuvres plus live telecast of the red-carpet arrivals in Los Angeles
5 p.m. - Live telecast of 80th annual Oscars, with Geoff Bolt providing laughs during commercial breaks
AT THE LARK THEATER
What: Fourth annual Academy Awards at the Lark, with proceeds benefitting the Lark Theater, a nonprofit film center
Who: The emcee is Chad Carvey
Where: Lark Theater, 549 Magnolia Ave., Larkspur
Details: Evening includes gifts for most glamorous guests, most creative outfits and winning nominee ballot; Silent auction for special framed movie posters and more; food donated by Larkspur restaurants and caterers and wines from Peter Paul & Grove Street Winery
Tickets: $55; $75 for reserved seats; seating is limited
Information: 924-5111 or e-mail info@larktheater.net
4:30 p.m. - Gala starts with cocktails and hors d’oeuvres plus live telecast of the red-carpet arrivals in Los Angeles
5 p.m. - Live telecast of 80th annual Oscars
Paul Liberatore can be reached at liberatore@marinij.com.

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